Stay tuned for our Q1 2025 Report, which will release in April and give insight into how these balances have evolved into 2025.

Liv-ex Member Survey

Earlier this month, Liv-ex surveyed its members on the future of the Fine Wine 100, a leading benchmark for fine wine prices.

“26.8% of respondents believe that the index will remain flat, making this the most popular choice.” Many participants reported that, while they do not see prices declining dramatically further—believing “the post COVID correction to be over”—the market is equally unlikely to spike without a renewed catalyst.

Overall, most members share the view that the market is bottoming out or has already done so. One UK member observed that “buyers are increasingly perceiving ‘incredible value’ at current prices.” Another pointed to a more fundamental rebalancing, noting that “stocks of unsold wines are being eradicated” as prices approach end of 2021 levels.

Against this backdrop, our approach has consistently delivered strong relative performance. On average, we generate around 8% alpha to Liv-ex Indices, capitalising on inefficiencies in the secondary market and leveraging our deep network to access the best opportunities. This ability to outperform the broader market reinforces our belief that, even in periods of stagnation, well-informed positioning can yield attractive returns.

Macroeconomic Considerations

While fine wine has historically shown resilience to broader economic fluctuations, macro-economic conditions will still play a role in the market’s recovery. As we enter 2025, many major central banks have pivoted from aggressive tightening to the early phases of a rate-cutting cycle, reflecting concerns about economic slowdown and moderating inflation.

This chart shows a lagging inverse relationship between interest rates and fine wine prices. As borrowing costs come down, buyers often feel more comfortable allocating capital to long-term, tangible assets like fine wine—particularly as equities remain volatile and inflation, while easing, still prompts caution. Over time, lower rates can help fuel demand, encouraging collectors and investors to seek out reputable producers or back-vintages with strong track records.

Comparisons to Past Downturns

Historical cycles suggest that fine wine prices consistently recover from downturns, often presenting opportunities for strategic buyers.

• 2008–2009 (Global Financial Crisis): Prices fell sharply amid broad financial turmoil but rebounded swiftly as economic stimulus and renewed Chinese demand reignited the market. The current ~10–15% decline is similar in scale, and while a rapid surge is less certain, improving economic conditions could support a steady recovery.

• 2011–2014 (Bordeaux Bubble Burst): After speculative overbuying, Bordeaux prices dropped 30–40%, taking years to stabilise. However, this led to a broader market expansion, with Burgundy, Champagne, and Italy attracting new interest. The current correction, though widespread, has been more measured, with value already emerging in Bordeaux and Italy.

Fine wine recoveries are rarely instant but tend to be resilient and rewarding for those who take a long-term view. Every past correction (2008, 2011, early 2000s) has ultimately led to new highs, supported by increasing global demand and the finite nature of top wines. Many analysts see this as a prime moment for selective buying, with a stabilisation phase likely paving the way for future growth.

Conclusion

The fine wine market appears poised at a delicate but promising juncture. An increasing share of wines are holding or gaining in value, as evidenced by Q4 2024 figures, and most Liv-ex members believe prices are bottoming out or have already stabilised.

While participants generally agree that the post-COVID correction is nearing its end, they also acknowledge the absence of any immediate trigger for rapid price increases. In other words, sentiment has improved, but the market is still seeking clear momentum.

For investors looking to access premium wines at exceptional prices, it seems like the window of opportunity is closing. As supply tightens and sentiment improves, value plays may become scarcer—particularly for highly coveted regions and vintages.

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